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paulalbert
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Posted: Sun Jan 15th, 2006 02:24 |
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I was wondering if I could show that patients on the MP tend to come from climates where they risk exposing themselves to more sunlight.
Using the residence location field available in the members tab, I recorded the number of people who report being from each of the 50 American states as well as D.C. (Sorry for not including you in my "study", my Aussie friends.) All together there were 729 people who reported being in a specific American state.
Then, I figured out the participation rate by dividing the number of participants per state by the total number of residents in the state. Finally, I plotted the participation rate of each state against the average latitude or distance from the equator of each state.
In the absence of other factors, one would expect that people who lived in states that received more and stronger sunlight (which presumably are closer to the equator) were more apt to be sick from TH1 illness, and therefore, inclined to participate in the MP.
Unfortunately, my chart--linked to here-- does not bear this out. In fact, the very opposite seems to be true. It's a weak trend, if it's statistically significant at all, and it seems to show that residents further away from the equator are more likely to sign up as MP patients.
Of course, there are any number of reasons why drawing any kind of conclusion here might be hasty. Maybe people from Southern states are shy about reporting their home state, or less likely to use a computer (some MP patients, I gather, don't use the net to report on their progress), or tend to better protect themselves against the sun, or anything really.
If anything, this chart shows us that a geographically diverse range of people participate the MP.
Yours in pointless correlations,
Paul
p.s. Congrats to Iowa and New Hampshire, which have the highest participation rates.
Last edited on Sun Jan 15th, 2006 02:30 by paulalbert
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Diag CFS 6.03 / sympt since 9.02 / exercise, food intol, sleep prob / 1,25D: 16, 4.06; 1,25D:27, 25D:26 7.04; 1,25D:43, 25D:6 6.05; 1,25D:17, 25D:8 8.05; / MP: 7.04 / Ph. 3 / Bacteriality
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jillian
Member in Phase 2
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Posted: Sun Jan 15th, 2006 04:36 |
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FYI--I live here in SW North Dakota and we get less than 15" of rain annually and it's VERY sunny! Rarely do we get full days that are cloudly. Our rain usually comes in very quick, very strong thunderstorms. Much of the mid-West is like this.
'til later, Jillian from North Dakota
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PrimryDX-PulmoSarc79,FMS,CFIDS,etc,disabled93. AvoidD/Noirs Aug02. Oct02: 1,25D=42 NTfrzen; Apr05:25D=10. P1 Oct05-Feb06; ModP2C Feb-Nov06; P2 Nov14-Dec06; ModP2BSS Jan-Mar07; ModP2CBSS Mar07-. Noirs & total light control in house.
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paulalbert
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Posted: Sun Jan 15th, 2006 06:03 |
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Good point, Jillian. And you don't even have all those Wall Drug billboards to shade you like your neighbors to the South.
Yup, my attempt at finding a correlation was pretty much ridiculous given all the factors that influence a person to enlist with mp.com. What can I say-- the lure of unearthing some kind of connection between a population's sun exposure and TH1 illness is great-- especially now that we know that TH1 illness is not related to genetics.
As I was writing someone else about this, some day I think a more robust look at these types of data might be able to show such a correlation.
Meanwhile, I'll try to swear off the amateurish investigations.
Paul
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Diag CFS 6.03 / sympt since 9.02 / exercise, food intol, sleep prob / 1,25D: 16, 4.06; 1,25D:27, 25D:26 7.04; 1,25D:43, 25D:6 6.05; 1,25D:17, 25D:8 8.05; / MP: 7.04 / Ph. 3 / Bacteriality
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Tobi
Member
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Posted: Sun Jan 15th, 2006 08:26 |
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Paul,
I'm taking permission from you to speculate and surmise. What is the 'profile' that fits Australians? Do many of us have low D values - perhaps because of the way samples are handled, or perhaps we are infected by different pathogens? Of course this is not true across the board - look at Barb for example (high D's initially). Just idle thoughts.
Tobi
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CFS,Rickettsia Conoori-,HHV6,Ureaplasma(all 3 culture,PCR) 25D 16.4ng/ml,1.25D 26pg/ml.Ratio 1,3 Blood probably NOT frozen Benicar 9/18/04 Mino 100mg 10/18/04 Phase 2 01/26/05
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ShrnHml
Member in Phase 2/3
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Posted: Sun Jan 15th, 2006 11:16 |
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Hey, Paul.....
I had been fantacizing about doing what you did but by putting dots on a map of the states....seeing which areas of the country had the most MPers.......adjusted for population as you did.
From your "work" can you see any correlation?
I await with interest your next project.
Sharon
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Neuroborreliosis, MP 3/05, 1,25D 62; 3/06 25D<4, ModPh2 12/05, Premarin, Effexor, stopped Benicar 1/07....no longer in study
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Dr Trevor Marshall
Research Team
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Posted: Sun Jan 15th, 2006 15:35 |
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Paul,
I realized that sunlight was a key factor in 1986. At the time I was standing in the main square of old-city Stockholm, waiting for a walking-tour guide. All our other European capital-city walking-tours had been at night, but Stockholm was during the day. I got very sick.
At that point I realized that the amount of sunshine in even the most northerly capital in the World (almost) was way too much for somebody with Th1 disease, I realized that the sensitivity went way beyond anything science had envisioned, and that latitude offered no protection whatsoever - because the degree of sensitivity was way greater than the amount of protection offered by latitidue.
However, the corollary is probably true - that folks living on the equator cannot escape sunlight. I worked for a year in Papua New Guinea (teaching at the PNG University of Technology)(1974) and I can tell you that the the sun there is fierce. But it is a mistake to assume that the sun elsewhere is less fierce to a degree that would alleviate Th1 illness.
..Trevor..
ps: There have been reports that 50% of folks in Papua New Guinea are seropositive for Lyme, and the CDC has tried hard to discredit the implications of this. See http://tinyurl.com/dvgrs
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paulalbert
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Posted: Sun Jan 15th, 2006 18:04 |
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Trevor,
I suppose you're right that latitude isn't protective. In fact, I wonder if a low latitude and near constant exposure to the sun, very generally speaking, might actually keep some folks from realizing how much the D is screwing with their immune system.
A lot of us can attest to the fact that it is the breaks in the sun exposure that gives us some personal insight into sunlight's strong influence on our health.
The seropositive rate for Lyme of people from Papau New Guinea is really interesting. I was wondering last night if there was a single variety of TH1 illness with a well-documented prevalence, which you could correlate with regional sun exposure. But, like you said, latitude offers no protective effect.
Sharon,
1. I've included the data points for participation rate below.
2. With just the click of a button, Excel draws a trendline based on the existing points. The fact that a line has been drawn doesn't necessarily imply a statistically significant correlation (<5%).
3. My "next project" is this one which looks at per capita income vs. participation rate, by state. Once again, there appears to be a weak correlation.... You know, in the end, I suspect that broadband access would offer the strongest correlation for participation rate. I looked at the Pew Internet and American Life Project but couldn't find anything.
Tobi,
Just so you know-- I didn't include Australia because it has but eight states and territories, most of them occupying the same latitudinal range. (Sorry also too to all you other residents of countries, which Americans constantly forget to acknowledge.)
Also, keep in mind that I did not use people's D rates (although that would be kind of interesting)-- just whether or not they signed up, and what state they declared to be home. Anyway, you would expect that at least some kinds of systematic variation in testing in one region (as well as other confounding factors like people signing up twice) would be evened out by variations in another region. Or maybe not.
STATE # of self-reported participants per 10 million residents
Iowa 100
New Hampshire 100
Washington 58
District of Columbia 54
Vermont 48
Delaware 48
Montana 43
Maryland 40
Wyoming 39
Nebraska 34
Utah 33
Oregon 33
South Carolina 33
Arizona 33
West Virginia 33
North Dakota 32
New Mexico 32
Missouri 31
Alaska 31
Indiana 30
Colorado 30
Nevada 30
New Jersey 30
Illinois 29
California 27
North Carolina 25
Pennsylvania 24
Florida 24
Michigan 24
Minnesota 24
Texas 23
Connecticut 23
Maine 23
Louisiana 22
Kansas 22
Tennessee 20
Massachusetts 20
Wisconsin 20
Alabama 20
New York 19
Virginia 19
Rhode Island 19
Ohio 18
Arkansas 18
Oklahoma 14
Mississippi 14
Georgia 14
Kentucky 10
Idaho 6
Hawaii 0
South Dakota 0
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Diag CFS 6.03 / sympt since 9.02 / exercise, food intol, sleep prob / 1,25D: 16, 4.06; 1,25D:27, 25D:26 7.04; 1,25D:43, 25D:6 6.05; 1,25D:17, 25D:8 8.05; / MP: 7.04 / Ph. 3 / Bacteriality
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scooker48
Member in Phase 3
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Posted: Sun Jan 15th, 2006 21:34 |
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Paul,
I enjoyed this post, as I enjoy reading your progress log. There is wit and charm to your entries, in addition to some truth IMO.
I think your "lack of correlation" is indeed insightful. One of the first things we learn upon coming to the Marshall Protocol, and http://www.sarcinfo.com, is that the lifestyle involves living in dim light and restricting bright lights. Wouldn't anyone perusing the web, who pauses to read about the MP, consider it MORE if they were from a state or geographical area with more extremes of lightness and darkness? Such as the higher latitudes? That is, the northern states? Those in the latitudes closer to the equator have less swings, and might not be as intrigued to the notion that light has something to do with disease.
I for one am convinced light does indeed have much to do with human disease and I hope to live a long life to see what the next few decades tell us about the inner workings of the optic nerve.
"Liars figure and figures lie."
Sherry
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Necrotizing granulomas biopsy 10/88; Dx 12/04 Sarcoid liver spleen. 2/2/05: VitD 25/VitD125 62. 5/9/09 D25, D3 6; D25 D2 <4, Liver function normal 4/08; Wear NoIRs outside. No K creme used. 5/09 Liver and kidneys normal.
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kenc
Member in Phase 3
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Posted: Sun Jan 15th, 2006 23:44 |
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| I think a better study would be to corrolate incidence of Th1 disease with latitude. However, there are of course many other factors, such as use of beta lactum antibiotics and immunization. Perhaps such studies already exist.
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Crohn's Disease 1984, 24May05 1,25D=33 25D=8.4, 6Sep05 1,25D=29 25D=12, 11Jun07 25D=<10.4 1,25D=10, 15Sep07 1,25D=14.2 25D=16, 12Jul05 Phase1 + pred, 12Jul06 Phase2 + pred/dexa, 14Aug07 Phase2, prednisone, dexamethasone, testosterone, aspirin, levothyr
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ShrnHml
Member in Phase 2/3
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Posted: Mon Jan 16th, 2006 16:17 |
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| Paul.....any possible explanation of why Iowa and New Hampshire have more than TWICE the numbers of the next lowest state. Anything the same in both states? ................Sharon
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Neuroborreliosis, MP 3/05, 1,25D 62; 3/06 25D<4, ModPh2 12/05, Premarin, Effexor, stopped Benicar 1/07....no longer in study
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paulalbert
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Posted: Mon Jan 16th, 2006 16:36 |
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Sharon,
Iowa and New Hampshire do seem rather high, and maybe it would mean something if the other points showed a correlation. However, there is no strong correlation, nor is there all that many data points to begin with, so we would probably have to conclude it was just an abnormal occurence, which happens very frequently even with random data. Just my opinion....
It would be interesting to see if over time regression to the mean kicks in, and IA and NH participation rates come back down to earth.
Or, it could be that early presidential primaries have an effect on the immune system. I know I feel VERY immune-compromised any time I hear a politician speak.
Paul
Last edited on Mon Jan 16th, 2006 16:41 by paulalbert
____________________
Diag CFS 6.03 / sympt since 9.02 / exercise, food intol, sleep prob / 1,25D: 16, 4.06; 1,25D:27, 25D:26 7.04; 1,25D:43, 25D:6 6.05; 1,25D:17, 25D:8 8.05; / MP: 7.04 / Ph. 3 / Bacteriality
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barbski
Member in Phase 3
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Posted: Mon Jan 16th, 2006 17:20 |
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Aha, demographic geography - finally someone discusses a subject where I actually have some expertise 
The possible correlation between latitude and participation rate is interesting, but I can see several problems.
A major problem is that this is a self-selecting group. There may be many other geo-demographical factors at play, the first and most important being that to participate in the protocol, you need a willing doctor to prescribe it. So an area with one or several protocol-prescribing doctors is likely to have a higher number of participants per 10,000 population than an area with none, especially if some of the doctors are advocating the protocol, as opposed to grudingly rx'ing if begged.
Beyond that, you would have to look at several other lesser factors:
Age structure of the state - I don't know if this varies much between US states, but as TH1 diseases may take many years to become severe enough for sufferers to search for a cure, a state with a relatively older population could be expected to have a higher number of participants.
Affluence/education/internet access. As this is currently primarily internet based, you'd need to look for patterns in the type of socio-demographic groups most likely to look for assistance via the internet.
Migration. Where did the participants live for the rest of their lives? For example, several of your Floridians may have migrated there from further north. Some participants came from different countries, although that may mean little. Dr Marshall for example, migrated from sunny Australia to sunny California.
Lyme endemic areas. Although many bacterial species are implicated, there's a slight possibility that areas of high Lyme endemicity might produce higher numbers of sufferers, and therefore participants.
And finally - to a Northern European like myself - none of you US patients live in particularly northen latitudes. You just think you do cos your winters are so cold
Barb
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CFS Lyme 125D50 Ph1Aug05 Ph2Apr06 brk Nov06-Jan07 ModPh2May07 Ph2May08 Nexium TR sodium zolpidem salbutamol magnesium citrate 25D (May05)
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Annieski
Banned
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Posted: Mon Jan 16th, 2006 18:54 |
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Hi Paul:
Before I found this site, but after, I had already been biopsy-diagnosed with sarcoid, I did some checking up too. I found that most people with sarcoid were either black-in this case ,most often africans or of tropical origen who moved to northern latitudes, or people of Scandinavian descent. Then Irish,Scot,(also dark in winter ,lt in summer in northern areas). I read stuff about melatonin being somehow implicated.
I wondered if in these northern latitudes(land(s) of the midnight sun) if there was something about not having any(very much) light for 6 months and then having ALL(or close to it) SUN for six months that threw off something to do with melatonin production(lack of darkness/lack of light)--or maybe now since finding this site throwing off D production/balance. The same could be said to hold for africa descent folks moving from eqatorial latitudes to northeastern US. I think it also was found in Puerto Ricans moving to NYC.
This made me wonder if diagnosis or "flares" were also seasonally triggered. July and January seemed to be big months in my unscientific polling of friends with sarcoid.
Also we are all skiers. People looking for light in dark places. I did not start skiing until I was 40 something. I was almost 50 when I was diagnosed. Buddy, one friend had the skin kind of sarcoid and seems to have defied the odds. He had it at 40 and now is in his 60s and is still a ski instructor has had a hip replacement from an injury and is back instucting in his 60s. My other sarcoid person in our tiny town where I know of 4, just know of, has almost died from obstructed trachea a few times--her husband is a dentist and had to do an emergency tracheotomy the first time--(one person I don't"know" enough for details)we get almost no sun here(I had even bought an ott lite for SADD-great probably killed myself with good intentions) But we have less sunny days than Seattle. Its almost a joke--Its the rust belt for a reason, its always cold and wet--except for summer--well more correctly mid to late July until Halloween(cahnging a little now with global warming) same kind of pattern--no sun to ALL sun--July when sun starts, dec-July almost NO sun. Hmmmmm--its been really really sunny with snow on the ground for the past two days(since I found the site that says sun is not good) This is so unusual--but now I'm huddled inside.
Trying to find a doc(not likely-very conservative hick area) They don't like anything new here`when people visit they ask if it is 1950.we still roller skate--no blades allowed-- I have terrible eyesight that deteriorates through out the day--corrected with contacts and glasses over them so please excuse bad typing ot spelling--somemaybe typos some just inability to look stuff up insmall print.
Annie
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Aussie Barb
Research Team
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Posted: Mon Jan 16th, 2006 20:59 |
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Annie, Please make sure your signature line is filled < see this link for details to include Thank You .. Barb ...
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Barb: Dx Inflammatory Disease Endocrine Imbalance 2003| Depression| 24+ years not Dx| MP Aug04| ABC of MP| MP Search|
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